WELCOME TO ISSUE #15
Welcome to AFIRE’s first-ever issue of the Summit
Journal Mid-Year Almanac.
How we define it here is sort
of how we explained the
concept to our design team:
same, but different.
Since 2019, our typical issues of Summit Journal have collected a broad array of “house views” from various organizations and research teams across the global commercial real estate industry.
Each of our calls-for-proposals are open-ended and not focused on particular themes or theses. Instead, we attempt to aggregate what the market is talking about at a given point in time. Sometimes, this means our articles have a long shelf life. Other times, an article or section might be narrowly focused on a very current trend—often with a clear expiration date (much like our pandemic-focused pieces in 2020 and 2021).
But over the past couple of years, we’ve aligned our publication schedule with our annual executive events schedule, and also positioned this publication as one key entry point (and output) of the broader AFIRE thought leadership platform. As such, by the time we reach the middle of the year (in alignment with our summer European Conference), we’ve noticed that there is an appetite among our readers and collaborators for an exploration of trends at ground level.
In other words, how can we answer two simple questions:
- How is a given sector performing right now?
- What do investors and managers need to watch for in the months ahead?
This brought us to the Almanac. Like with any other issue of Summit, we prioritize and publish good ideas—whether they come from AFIRE membership or other reaches of the industry. But to form this issue, we invited contributors to pick their subject of expertise, such as residential, office, retail, and so forth, and answer these two simple questions.
The result is this Almanac: a sector-by-sector update of commercial real estate performance in the US, starting with eleven charts you need to know to understand the economic and social conditions underpinning asset performance across sectors—including industrial and data centers as strong performers on one hand, or office and hospitality as challenged assets on the other hand.
We’re grateful to our contributors for understanding the experiment and setting a high bar for future annual editions—and we’re especially grateful to our sponsors, Principal Asset Management and Cerberus Capital Management, for seeing the value in the conversation. We hope you do, too.
– Benjamin van Loon, CAE, Editor-in-Chief, Summit Journal
IN THIS ISSUE
NOTE FROM THE EDITOR: WELCOME TO #15
Benjamin van Loon | AFIRE
MID-YEAR CRE MARKET OUTLOOK: AFIRE
Benjamin van Loon and Gunnar Branson | AFIRE
MULTIFAMILY OUTLOOK: AMERICAN REALTY ADVISORS
Sabrina Unger and Britteni Lupe | American Realty Advisors
MULTIFAMILY GAP CAPITAL: BARINGS REAL ESTATE
Dags Chen, CFA and Lincoln Janes, CFA | Barings Real Estate
SINGLE-FAMILY RENTAL OUTLOOK: CERBERUS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Kevin Harrell | Cerberus Capital Management
SINGLE-FAMILY RENTAL SUPPLEMENT: YARDI
Paul Fiorilla | Yardi
LOGISTICS OUTLOOK: BRIDGE INVESTMENT GROUP
Jay Cornforth, Jack Robinson, PhD, Morgan Zollinger, and Cole Nukaya | Bridge Investment Group
DATA CENTER OUTLOOK: PRINCIPAL ASSET MANAGEMENT
Casey Miller and Ben Wobschall | Principal Asset Management
SELF-STORAGE OUTLOOK: HEITMAN
Zubaer Mahboob | Heitman Europe
COLD-STORAGE OUTLOOK: NEWMARK
Lisa DeNight | Newmark
OFFICE OUTLOOK: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
David Smith | Cushman & Wakefield
RETAIL OUTLOOK: MADISON INTERNATIONAL REALTY
Christopher Muoio | Madison International Realty
HOSPITALITY OUTLOOK: JLL
Zach Demuth | JLL
THIS ISSUE OF SUMMIT JOURNAL IS GENEROUSLY SPONSORED BY
Founded in 1992, Cerberus is a global leader in alternative investing with approximately $65 billion1 in assets across complementary credit, private equity, and real estate strategies. We invest across the capital structure where our integrated investment platforms and proprietary operating capabilities create an edge to improve performance and drive long-term value. Learn more.
Principal Real Estate is the dedicated real estate investment team of Principal Asset Management, the global investment solutions business for Principal Financial Group®. As a top 10 global real estate manager, with over $98 billion in assets under management and more than 60 years of experience, we provide clients with access to opportunities across both public and private equity and debt. Learn more.