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As one of the world’s oldest investment classes, real estate is fundamentally paradoxical.
On the one hand, compared to other investments, it’s actual and physical; it doesn’t exist only in the mind or in a data matrix. But on the other hand, it’s not fixed in place.
Its geographical boundary lines might be identifiable and quantifiable, but whatever falls within those boundaries is always on the move—usually on a geological pace.
But sometimes, things change fast.
The past several years of real estate, following the shock of the pandemic and the resulting, rapid transformation of social, political, and economic values, will eventually prove to be one of those earthquakes that births a new mountain chain—accomplishing in a few short years what would otherwise happen over the course of centuries.
As you will see when exploring this fourteenth issue of Summit, the earthquake is still rumbling, and changes are still happening fast.
Starting with the 2024 market outlooks from Martha Peyton and Jack Robinson, the issue transitions quickly to a look at assets across the real estate spectrum, including multifamily, logistics, and—last, but not least—office, which will be experiencing several pain points over the next few years thanks to financial challenges, and larger global issues that are fundamentally changing our relationship to space usage and the built environment.
And so we also give extended consideration to the ongoing conversation around operating expenses, artificial intelligence, and insurance vis a vis climate change.
The underlying theme that has emerged in all of these insights is the paradox of real estate itself, and that by the time this issue is published, the conversation will have evolved again (this is the paradox of publishing, as well). But we believe that these insights are vital—and will remain so—for the rough terrain ahead.
– Benjamin van Loon, Editor-in-Chief, Summit Journal
IN THIS ISSUE
NOTE FROM THE EDITOR: WELCOME TO #14
Benjamin van Loon | AFIRE
INSURING FOR ELSEWHERE: CLIMATE-RESPONSIVE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT
Benjamin van Loon | AFIRE
INSURING FOR ELSEWHERE: STRIPPING THE CASHFLOW FROM THE DEAL
Paul Fiorilla | Yardi
MARKET OUTLOOK: MODEST GROWTH AND RETREATING INFLATION IN 2024
Martha Peyton, CRE, PhD | LGIM America
UNDERPERFORMANCE PARADOX: NEW RESEARCH QUESTIONS THE VALUE OF PRIVATE REAL ESTATE FUNDS
William Maher, Taylor Mammen, Ben Maslan | RCLCO Fund Advisors
NAVIGATING THE CURVE: RESILIENCE, ADAPTATION, AND PREPARING FOR 2024
Jack Robinson, PhD | Bridge Investment Group
LIQUIDITY FREEZE: POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS FOR COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Christopher Muoio | Madison International Realty
SUPPLY WAVE: REASON FOR OPTIMISM IN THE MULTIFAMILY SECTOR
Sabrina Unger, Britteni Lupe | American Realty Advisors
MANAGE WHAT YOU MEASURE: UNDERSTANDING EXPENSE INFLATION IN APARTMENTS
Gleb Nechayev | Berkshire Residential + Webster Hughes, PhD | ThirtyCapital
PARSING OFFICE DISTRESS: PLANNING FOR THE NEXT GENERATION OF OFFICE SPACE
Dags Chen, Lincoln Janes, CFA | Barings Real Estat
MODEL STATES: USING ECONOMIC STATE MODELS TO ASSESS THE US OFFICE OUTLOOK
Armel Traore Dit Nignan | Principal Real Estate
OUTWARD SHIFT: WILL THE LOGISTICS SECTOR CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM?
Kerrie Shaw | AXA IM Alts
HARNESSING THE WIND: TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND THE PROMISE AND PERIL OF AI FOR REAL ESTATE
Nikodem Szumilo | University College London + Chris Urwin | Real Global Advantage
MIND YOUR DATA: REAL ESTATE INVESTING, FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF A DATA NERD
Ron Bekkerman, PhD
OPERATING EXPENSES RISING THE OTHER MAJOR COMPONENT OF NOI GETS MORE FOCUS
Stewart Rubin, Dakota Firenze | New York Life Real Estate Investors